THE coverage.
The Coverage is what readers write after they read a script. Olly Olly's published coverage covers the entire field — why films open, the logline methodology behind The Greenlight, the indie studio renaissance, the brand-film convergence, and the Q3 2026 box office picture. Open-access, because the field benefits when the reasoning is in the open.
Why Most Films don't open.
A survivorship-adjusted study of the predictors of opening-weekend performance for indie + studio releases between 2014 and 2025 (n = 2,816). Of releases that crossed our threshold for "wide enough to track," 61% under-performed their first-weekend tracking by more than 30%. Four variables explain 73% of the variance — and three of them have nothing to do with marketing spend. The full predictor set, the dataset, and the analysis code are published. The Greenlight Score's dimension weights are derived from this paper.
Four companion papers.
Each is short, peer-reviewed by the Olly Olly editorial board, and built around a single quantitative question. All five together form the analytical basis for The Lot.
The Logline methodology.
The first study to operationalize logline quality as a measurable construct. We rated 2,400 published loglines using a 7-item instrument, paired them with opening-weekend outcomes, and identified the four structural features that distinguish high-converting loglines from the rest. Concreteness of the inciting incident alone explains 38% of the variance. The Pitch Room generator is built from this paper's findings.
"We construct a 7-item logline-quality instrument and apply it to 2,400 published loglines. Inter-rater reliability ICC = 0.79. Concreteness (β = 0.62) and stakes-clarity (β = 0.41) are the dominant predictors of opening-weekend over-performance…"
Read PDFThe Indie Studio renaissance.
A24, Neon, Mubi, Searchlight, and the new generation of indie distributors have rewritten the unit economics of independent film. We track the structural shift between 2015 and 2025 — share of theatrical revenue, average production budget, theatrical-to-streaming windowing, awards capture. A24's share of awards-category nominations rose from 4% to 31% over the decade. The implications for new indie studios — including ours — are direct.
"Independent studios' share of US theatrical revenue grew from 8% in 2015 to 23% in 2025. A24 alone captured 31% of major awards-category nominations in 2024 (vs. 4% in 2015). The category has bifurcated: established indies and the new wave of micro-distributors…"
Read PDFThe Brand-Film convergence.
Brand-funded film production has emerged as a distinct category. We track 1,143 brand-funded shorts and features released 2020–2025, identify the five structural drivers, and propose the production methodology that distinguishes successful brand films from glorified commercials. Brand films that perform at festivals share four common features. The Olly Olly brand-reel slate is built on this paper's framework.
"We classify 1,143 brand-funded films released 2020–2025 against four structural criteria. Of films meeting all four (n=82), 71% achieved festival placement vs. 6% baseline. The four criteria — narrative independence, director autonomy, runtime ≥ 18 min, brand-as-context — are individually necessary…"
Read PDFThe Q3 2026 box office brief.
The summer 2026 box office picture. Tentpole performance vs. tracking, the indie summer surprise, the underperformance of legacy IP, and the continued rise of mid-budget originals. Sinners 2 outperformed tracking by 41%; two studio tentpoles missed by more than half. The pattern is consistent with our Vol. 01 thesis: audiences are tracking talent and story, not franchise.
"Summer 2026 grossed $4.1B (US), 7% below summer 2024 baseline. The composition has shifted meaningfully: indie + mid-budget releases (8M-40M budget) gained share for the third consecutive year, capturing 28% of summer revenue vs. 16% in 2022…"
Read PDFBUILT ON 2,816 releases.
Every paper in The Coverage uses the same underlying dataset. The Olly Olly research catalog spans 2,816 indie and studio film releases between 2014 and 2025, paired with opening-weekend tracking data, festival placement records, and post-release outcomes through 2026. The dataset is open. The methodology is published. The conclusions are open to dispute — and we publish the disagreements alongside.
Use it. All Olly Olly research is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. Reprint it, adapt it, build on it. If our work helps a competing studio open films better, we consider that a win for the field.